Bihar Election Opinion Poll: Four recently published opinion polls indicate a strong NDA position. Published between September 29 and October 1, the four opinion polls all unanimously concluded that the NDA is likely to win a clear majority. Furthermore, the NDA could potentially surpass its historic 2010 performance.
Four recently published opinion polls for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections have projected a strong NDA position. According to these surveys, the NDA is expected to secure a 40-52% vote share and 130-158 seats, significantly better than its 2020 performance. These surveys indicate a strong NDA position, but the Grand Alliance is also posing a strong challenge. The election results will be declared in November 2025, which will reveal who the people of Bihar choose. However, current opinion polls predict the NDA could repeat its historic 2010 victory, when it won 206 out of 243 seats with a 39% vote share.
Surveys conducted by Matrix, JVC Opinion Polls, Speak Media Network, and Vote Vibe predict a NDA vote share of between 40% and 52% and a win of between 130 and 158 seats. This is significantly better than its previous performance in the 2020 Assembly elections. There could be several reasons behind the NDA’s strong position. According to the survey, the NDA under Nitish Kumar’s leadership has strengthened its hold in Bihar. All four opinion polls tell a similar story. The NDA, comprising the Janata Dal (United) (JDU), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), along with allies like the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), is showing a strong lead. The following is a description of the key findings.
Survey findings reveal NDA’s strong position, with 43% support for NDA in Matrix survey.
The survey revealed significant public satisfaction with Nitish Kumar’s governance. 76% expressed satisfaction with his work, with 40% being “very satisfied” and 36% being “satisfied.” When asked which party could provide good governance in Bihar, 35% chose the BJP and 18% chose the JDU, giving the NDA a total of 43% support. The most surprising finding is that despite his 20-year tenure as Chief Minister, 42% still want Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister. When asked which alliance should win elections today, 52% supported the NDA, meaning the NDA is likely to receive a 52% vote share. This figure is significant, as in 2010, the NDA won 206 seats with only 39% of the vote share.
- 76% of respondents said they were satisfied with Nitish Kumar’s performance.
- 42% still want Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister.
- 35% chose the BJP and 18% chose the JDU for good governance in Bihar.
- The NDA received a total of 43% support for good governance.
- If elections were held today, 52% would vote for the NDA.
Nitish Kumar tops the JVC opinion poll
The survey predicts a 41-45% vote share and 131-150 seats for the NDA. The Grand Alliance, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), is expected to win 40% of the vote and 81-103 seats. The Jan Suraj Party (Jan Suraj) party is expected to win 10-11% of the vote and 4-6 seats. Nitish Kumar remains the top choice for Chief Minister with 27% support, while Tejashwi Yadav is in second place.
- The JVC projected a 41-45% vote share and 131-150 seats for the NDA.
- The Grand Alliance was projected to win 40% of the vote and 81-103 seats.
- The Jan Suraj Party could win 10-11% of the vote and 4-6 seats.
- Nitish led the list of Chief Ministerial candidates with 27%, followed by Tejashwi Yadav with 25%.
PK suffered a setback in the Speak Media Network survey.
- According to this survey, the NDA is projected to win 158 seats with a 46% vote share,
- while the Grand Alliance is projected to win 66 seats with a 41% vote share. Jan Suraj is
- projected to win 8% of the vote share, but Prashant Kishore’s party is projected to win no
- seats. Meanwhile, Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehad Muslimeen (AIMIM) is
projected to win four seats.
- Speak Media Network projects the NDA to be in a stronger position.
- The NDA is projected to win 46% of the vote share and 158 seats.
- The Grand Alliance is projected to win 66 seats with a 41% vote share.
- Jan Suraj is projected to win 8% of the vote share but no seats.
- AIMIM is projected to win 4 seats.
Vote Vibe Survey: Vote Share Above 40%
This survey, rather than directly assessing voting preferences, asked about the impact of the Mahagathbandhan’s Mahila Rojgar Yojana (Rs. 10,000 to women). Approximately 34.9% of respondents said they would vote for the Mahagathbandhan, while 34.8% supported the NDA, indicating a near-even vote. However, 5.8% of respondents who previously voted for the Mahagathbandhan or Jan Suraj said they would vote for the NDA because of this scheme, pushing the NDA’s vote share above 40%.
- Vote Vibe measured the impact of the schemes rather than directly measuring vote share.
- 34.9% of respondents said they would vote for the Grand Alliance.
- 34.8% expressed support for the NDA.
- 5.8% said they would abandon their previous preferences and vote for the NDA because of its schemes.
- The survey concluded that the NDA’s vote share could exceed 40%.
Is this a transformative election for Bihar?
Overall, these surveys indicate that the NDA is likely to win 130-158 seats and a 40-52% vote share, significantly improving from its 2020 performance (125 seats, 37.26% vote share). The Grand Alliance is projected to win 66-103 seats with a 37-41% vote share. This election is being called a “transformative election” for Bihar. Indeed, this not only signals the NDA’s return but also points to a possible reshuffle in the state’s leadership and political dynamics in the future.
